Volume 03, Number 04, December 2014
Muhammad Hasan Basri dan Riswandi
Abstract : The objective of this study is to analyse the phenomenon of flypaper effect in Aceh after the implementation of fiscal decentralization. Data used in the study were panel data covering all 23 district/municipalities in Aceh from 2011 to 2013. Pooled Least Square was utilized. The results of this study revealed that ownsource revenue, sharing revenue, special allocation funds, general allocation funds, and special autonomy funds are statistically significant variables and have a positive relation to regional spending. It was proven that flypaper effect has occured in Aceh as the coefficient of the own-source revenue variabel was smaller than that of sharing revenue variabel. This implied that Aceh has been dependent on the national government in term of regional financing. Based on descriptive analysis, provinces having dominant share of tertiary sector to their regional gross domestic products show fiscally independent. In order to achieve fiscal independence, the phenomenon of flypaper effect could be overcomed by shifting the economic structure from the primary and secondary to the tertiary sectors of the economy. In doing so, the contribution of own-source revenue to regional spending outweigh intergovernment transfer funds from national government
Fajriah, Azhar Bafadal, dan La Anadi
Abstract : Skipjack fishery business is one of businesses in catch fisheries sector which is potential to be developed since it has the ability to increase fishermen’s income and macro economy. This research was aimed to analyze: a) Competitiveness of skipjack fisheries bussines the Purse Seine Fishermen Capture Device Kendari at WPP 714 on comparative and competitive advantages, b) the impact of policy on the competitiveness of skipjack fishery business in Kendari. The research was carried out for seven months from December 2013 to July 2014 in Kendari, the center of catch fisheries in Southeast Sulawesi. The sampling is done by simple random sampling. The data was analyzed by using Policy Matrix Analysis (PAM) model. The result showed that; Skipjack fishery business using in Kendari has a good competitiveness in both domestic and international market. This result implied that the skipjack fishery business in Kendari is economically and financially feasible, and will become more competitive if supported by government’s policy on input and output prices of the skipjack fishery business.
Dede Ruslan, dan Indra Maipita
Abstract : The purpose of this study to find out if the factors of production could give contribution tu the production or income and the cost of rice production, the economy efficiensy of rice production. It is hoped thet the result of this study could give information to farmers and local government in Deli Serdang about the contributions of the factors of production to the production or income and the cost of rice farm opration production. From the study, it is shown that the characteristic of model of production, the using of the factors of production and teh cost of production opportunity is increasing returns to scale or decreasing cost industries. The economy scale of rice production describes that the estimate cost of corn farm production. The analysis of economy efficiensy from the rice production was taken form condition that the produtions marginal cost is lower than the corn scale. From the contributions of field, seed, fertilizer and labor toward the rice production, it can be explained that rice production can be raised by increasing the field, seed, fertilizer, and labor usings
Muhammad Hijrah Saputra dan Cut Zakia Rizki
Abstract : This study aimed to determine the effect of the Special Autonomy Fund Against Human Development Index in Aceh, to achieve these objectives, this study uses the Human Development Index (HDI) as the dependent variable and the Special Autonomy Fund (Autonomy) as independent variables. The data analyzed in this study are secondary data from the reports on the realization of the Government's budget 23 districts / municipalities in the province of Aceh which was obtained through a survey BAPPEDA Aceh and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Aceh. The data used are panel data which is a combination of Time Series and Cross Section. Data time series used is the 23 districts / cities in the period 2009 - 2012. The method used in this study is one of three in a panel data analysis techniques that pool (common) effect model, fixed effect model and random effect model. Based on data processing studies concluded that the SAF has a positive and significant effect on the Human Development Index, which the SAF increase in tandem with the increase in the Human Development Index. So it can be concluded that the increase in SAF positive effect on the Human Development Index in 23 districts / municipalities in the Aceh Province.
Volume 03, Number 03, September 2014
Abstract : The results from the fixed effects model analysis show that the natural resources, gross fixed capital formation, and technology have a significant and positive effect simultaneously on economic growth in North Sumatra. While labor has a nonsignificant effect on economic growth in North Sumatra. Effect of natural resources, gross fixed capital formation, and technology on economic growth is inelastic and shows a diminishing return for the all the sources of growth. The largest source of economic growth that affects economic growth in North Sumatra is gross fixed capital formation by 0.497 and the largest increase in economic growth due to changes in the sources of economic growth is Pematangsiantar by 5,235 percent, while the smallest is Tanjungbalai City by 2,234 percent.
Abstract : Principally the sectoral shift and development in a region is a sustainable activity to realize a good condition collectively and continuously. The objective of this research is to analyze the change and shift of agricultural sector to the local economic condition in Regency of Langkat. The data applied in this research is secondary data collected from any institution/organization related to the studied problem since 2007 up to 2012. The applied data analysis method is Shift Share Analysis. This method is applied to observe the economic structure and its shift by focus to sectoral development in region than the same one in the higher regional level or in national level. The results of research indicates that (a) agricultural sector is a sector with the bigger role in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Langkat regency, (b) the national share value for agricultural sector and industry with a rapid growth than the other sectors, (c) the value of differential shift, agricultural sector, industry, electricity and gas, building, transportation and financial is a sector with higher competitive or sector with the rapid shift growth than other sector, and (d) the results of shift share analysis indicates that there is development of GRDP for 93.50 percent.
Abstract : This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic performance, i.e., the inflation and gross regional domesticproduct of agriculture sector (PDRB), on the farmer’s term of trade (NTP) in Southeast Sulawesi. Data used are of quarterly, covering 2006-2012. The analysis is undertaken by using a multiple linear regression withordinary least squaresestimation method(OLS). The results showed that the inflation has a significant effecton the farmer’s term oftrade. The effect of the inflation on the farmer’s term of trade is responsive, the inflation of 1 % will be able to decrease thefarmer’s term of trade at 1.61 %. Agricultural Sector PDRB does not significant affecton thefarmer’s term of trade. This study implies that the inflation control is an important task for the government so that the effect of inflation does not result in a sharp decrease in NTP.
Ina Namora Putri Siregar, Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi, Arwansyah
Abstract : The plantation are one of the sectors that are considered able to survive and make a significant contribution in the post-crisis economic recovery. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship plantation sector and the impact of the plantation sector gross output, labor and households in the economy in North Sumatra. In measuring and analyzing the tables used are Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) or a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of North Sumatra. In connection table SAM North Sumatra province is not yet available, therefore in this study was built tables SAM 1995 and 2009, the structure refers to the processed products which have been built by Ginting (2006). Based on the analysis it appears that the role of plantations in North Sumatra as indicated by the results obtained have power spread index greater (>1) means the plantation sector has the ability to attract growth in upstream sectors (backward linkages). In addition, this sector has a multiplier of gross output of more than three, which means when in the injection of one unit in this sector, then the resulting output has tripled over the breadth of the effect of forward and backward. And based on the order of rank, occupies five large estates.
Volume 03, Number 02, June 2014
Abstract : Free trade agreement between ASEAN and China was executed in early 2010. Various types of trade tariffs have been removed or lowered to support the agreement which may lead to changes in the welfare of Indonesian households. This research tries to find out the impact of ASEAN-China free trade agreement on the welfare of households in Indonesia. The model used for this analysis is AGEFIS model, a Computable General Equilibrium model of Indonesian economy. The findings of this research show that the free trade between ASEAN and China increases the level of economic activity. Various macroeconomic indicators such as output and exports increase relative to the output prior to the free trade agreement. Income of urban households rise but rural households are adversely affected. Skilled-workers benefits more than unskilled ones.
Lukman Hakim, Yosafat Hermawan Trinugraha, Mulyanto, Hery Sulistyo, Bambang Nugraha, Suryono
Abstract : Early Warning System (EWS) is a solution of food security of the most important in the management of the policy (Governance) food security. This study departs from best practices (best practices) in the regional autonomy that has been applied in the area surrounding the Surakarta and management of food security that is initiated by Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) through Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID). This study uses FGD and AHP method are used to build the index of food security EWS. The results of this study indicate that areas that do not have high production in food commodities indeed have a higher susceptibility than having high production.
Abstract : Vector Autoregresive model is used to gives a more comprehensive view of how the relationship of FDI to economic growth, trade, exchange rate, the output value of the industry, and the interest rate in Indonesia. This study provides empirical evidence about the relationship which are interrelated to each other among the variables analyzed. By using VAR can analyze the impact of FDI on economic growth with other variables. The empirical results of whole analysis to give an answer to the original question posed in this study relate to how economic growth has been achieved, what the role of FDI and other spillovers in this process. Through the VAR model, the interdependence between the variables FDI, GDP, Trade, Industrial Output Value, Exchange Rate and Interest rates have been investigated in long-term relationships through cointegrating vectors and the short-term impact of the VAR model. Correlation of dynamic variables have been captured by the analysis of variance decomposition and impulse response.
Abstract : This study aims to analyze the structure of Islamic banking industry in Indonesia after the issuance of Law No. 21 of 2008 on Islamic Banking, including the factors that influence the structure industro through concentration ratio. The method used in this study was a descriptive study (descriptive study) and correlational studies, collecting data through observation techniques to data released by the Financial Services Authority and Bank Indonesia. The data that has been collected analyzed using the ratio of the concentration of 4 largest companies and non-parametric statistical test through Pearson product moment correlation to determine the relationship between variables that affect the concentration ratio. Based on the results of the study showed that the structure of the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia after Act No 21 of 2008 is included in the criteria but with a tight oligopoly involving Islamic Business Unit (UUS) and sharia rural banks (BPRS) included in the competition category is p. The structure of the industry has had a negative relationship with the share market, absolute capital and government policies, and have a positive relationship with the economies of scale and market growth.
Volume 03, Number 01, March 2014
Abstract : The purpose of this study was to determine the persistence of inflation in major North Sumatera Province in 2007 until 2012 and value contributed Output Growth (GDP) of North Sumatera, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Error Correction Term about Inflation in North Sumatera. Data is used secondary data from general Consumer Price Index (CPI) from North Sumatera Province include Medan, Pematangsiantar, Sibolga and Padangsidempuan monthly of January 2007 until December 2012. And secondary data Consumer Price Index (CPI) of North Sumatera Province, Gross Domestic Product of Province Sumatera Utara, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of BI Rate yearly of 1999 until 2012. Model is used model econometric with Autoregressive method and Error Correction Model. Result of this research with estimation of VAR model concludes that degree of persistence of 4 town from North Sumatera Province is low. Result of estimation of model ECM concludes that Interest Rate significantly affect to inflation rate, while Gross Domestic Product of North Sumatera Province and Exchange Rate not significantly affect to inflation rate. While ECT becomes significant correction to variable inflation rate. Where the form of error correction in the ECM suggests a long‐term relationship between the variables inflation, GDP variable, the variable exchange rate and variable interest rate is comparable.
Abstract : This study aims to determine the monetary policy variable linkages with Indonesia's balance of payments. Using svar and IRF analysis found that the level of α = 0.05, variable monetary policy instruments such as open market operation (OPT), the minimum reserve requirement (GWM), and the discount rate (rDisk) has a significant relationship with the variable balance of payments (BOP) . In fact, all the macroeconomic variables also significantly affect the balance of payments variables, except the variable domestic interest rates. This means that there is a close link between monetary policy instruments with the balance of payments in Indonesia in the period of the study.
Dian Novianti Sitompul
Abstract : North Sumatra is a province that has a fundamental problem of high unemployment. Judging from the years 1994-2010, overall pengengguran is the biggest challenge still facing the North Sumatra due to termination of employment due to the economic crisis, rising raw material prices significantly from the various sub-industries are incorporated in the manufacturing category. On the other hand the costs for labor and increase the added value of the resulting output is a condition that must be considered. This research aims to analyze the influence of GDP, the number of industries, inflation and the minimum wage on employment in the industrial sector of North Sumatra simultaneously and partially.The data used are secondary data sourced from North Sumatra Province namely BPS GDP variable, the number of industries, inflation, wages and employment industries in the province of North Sumatra as time series from 1994 till , 2010. The results of this research can be concluded that simultaneous simultaneously change the variable GDP, inflation, industrial, and UMR significantly affect the demand for industrial labor in the province of North Sumatra. Furthermore, partially concluded that GDP variable, and the number of positive effect on demand for industrial labor industry, while inflation and minimum wage variables negatively affect the demand for industrial labor in the province of North Sumatra.The results also showed that the most dominant variable effect on the demand for labor in the industrial sector of the province of North Sumatra is the number of industries.
Ismail Fahmi Lubis
Abstract : The Phenomena and trends of level of inflation which seem to be high as caused by factors or government policies whilst the level of economic growth averagely shows high and sustainable growth drawing the unusual macroeconomic condition in Indonesia. This research is conducted to find Correlation and Short-run as well as Long-run relationship between inflation and economic in Indonesia during 1968- 2012. Besides, it is to find Granger-Causality between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It first tests its Unit-Root by Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey Fuller test, then it tests its Cointegration by Johansen Cointegration test and its causal relationship by Granger-Causality test as well as it makes mechanism of Error Correction Model (ECM). It is found both inflation and economic growth have no Unit-Root. It is found both inflation and economic growth have Correlation. It is found significantly long-run relationship through the probability value of its residual and short-run relationship through the probability value of inflation and economic growth in its differentiation. It is then found significantly one-way Granger-causality GDP causes CPI but not found one-way Granger-causality CPI causes GDP