Volume 05, Number 04, December 2016
Anhar Fauzan Priyono
Abstract : Rapid integration between domestic and world economy in the last decade has been a major issue. For Indonesia, the situation has been accelerated by the adoption of floating exchange rate regime in 1997, also with the development of Indonesia stock exchange. One notable financial variable that often exposed to external shocks is stock market index. This research will analyzed the behavior of 3 major stock market indices in ASEAN, those are Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), Kuala Lumpur stock index (KLSE), and Singapore stock index (STI). The employment of volatility model is chosen to figured the behavior of those 3 indices, and to analyze the aggregate investment in each stock market. Observation will be based upon monthly basis, from 2010 until 2015. The findings in this research are (i) similarity in the movement behavior of ASEAN-3 stock market indices, (ii) Indonesia stock market shows the highest aggregate investment return relative to Malaysia and Singapore, (iii) Singapore stock market shows the lowest aggregate investment risk relative to Indonesia and Malaysia, as the representation of more developed stock market.
Abstract : Delegation of authority taxation (tax assignment) was good to regional governments tend to date still lacks clear standards and universal. Tax assignment and restructuring of taxes and levies in a sustainable course can only be done by revising Law No. 28 of 2009 which is the basis in the management of local taxes and levies. How the performance of local taxation in Medan running has been the material of interest to be studied. Assessment approach used in this study diguankan kualitaitif research and quantitative research. Whereas in other research used to obtain a quantitative description on the contributions and the rate of development of local taxes to the local tax revenue and the performance of Medan, through analytical tools tax elasticity, tax ratio and TPI. The results showed that the performance of local taxes through tax elasticity is known that the average percentage change in local taxes to the percentage change in the GDP amounted to 1.99%, while the ratio of the tax does not show improvement every year. Tax ratio that existed during the period 2011-2015 ranged from 0.62% to 0.85%. For the effectiveness of the tax is relatively stable with ratanya average at 0.79 and when viewed from the level of efficiency since the year 2011 to 2015 ranged from 0% to 2.15%. In an average rate of 0.04% CCER only. These values were lower and included in the category of good.
Abstract : Marketing on corn trends to concentration and distribute where both of commodities produced in many places in raw materials needs, continiuty of the commodities processing in the low volume to cover costs in marketing in function . Corn marketing the concertration shorts from gathering the agriculture of product from farmers to gatherers, stock gatheres and by trades and ends in distribution case. It works from agents, retailer to consument. The study aims to identify how the marketing line of corn and share margin of market on every line of marketing: primer and secondary data got from farmer and corn trader. Analyze Methods are marketing line, marketing major , price spread and share margin. The study research resulted that these are two forms of corn marketing, they are: (a) Farmer – trader – gatherer – farm store or retailer – consument, (b) Farmer – farm shop or retailer – consunment. Most of the farmers market the on the first line it’s about 70% and the rest one is about 30% on the second one. Margin profit received by the traders is bigger than received by the farmers, either on the first marketing line or the second one.
Abstract : The aim of this study is to see how the equlibrium (internal balance) of interest rate and GDP created by the goods market (IS curve) and money market (LM). Then from the earlier internal balance, the study want to see how the fiscal and monetary policy affects the economy, particularly in influencing the internal balance when the two policies were interacted. The study was conducted with Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method to finding IS – LM equation using time series data (1998 – 2011). Then do the trial and error to find an internal balance. After that the authors try to find the shift of IS – LM when there were policy intervention. The result showed that the earlier of internal balance is 7,79% for interest rate, and Rp. 438.011 billion for GDP. Based on estimation of time series data, the study concluded that, there is no equilbrium for internal balance when fiscal and monetary policy were interacted. When there is fiscal policy intervention, the result show that the policy effectively affect economic growth. While when there is monetary policy intervention, the result show that the economy not responsive to the policy. So when the fiscal and monetary policy were interacted, it can not be created the new equlibrium (internal balance)
Volume 05, Number 03, September 2016
Imam Mukhlis, Salman Firdausi, Sariyani dan Syamsul Bahri
Abstract : This research aims to estimate the demand for money model in Indonesia for 2005.2- 2015.12. The variables used in this research are demand for money, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate (IDR/US$). The stationary test with ADF used to test unit root in the data. Cointegration test applied to estimate the long run relationship between variables. This research employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the money demand model in Indonesia. The results showed that all the data was stationer at the difference level (1%). There were long run relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia. The VECM model could not explain interaction between explanatory variables to independent variables. In the short run, there were not relationship between interest rate, inflation and exchange rate to demand for money in Indonesia for 2005.2-2015.12.
Abstract : Program Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have ended in 2015, Indonesia's commitment to achieve the MDGs is done by making the MDGs as a reference inpreparation of documents National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2005-2025. To examine the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) must be evaluated how the condition of development gains in Medan via indicator Millienium Development Goals (MDGs) that specifically alleviate poverty and hunger (goal 1 MDGs) so it can be recommended several measurement programs that can affect target-setting achievements of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Medan. Data analysis techniques used to approach the quantitative approach, but in the scope of descriptive analysis by exploring the data in the form of tables and graphs. The results showed that the conditions of development gains in Medan via indicator Millienium Development Goals (MDGs) basically has been running well in which of the seven indicators that proclaimed the majority of activity has been reached.
Romauli Manurung dan Fitrawaty
Abstract : This study aimed to analyze the structure of the banking industry and the level of competition of banking institutions in Indonesia. In measuring and analyzing the model used Panzar-Rosse built on indicators of competition, called H-Stats, which provide a quantitative assessment of the competitive nature of the market. H-statistics calculated from equation reduction in revenue and the size of the total revenue elasticity with respect to changes in input factor prices. Panzar and Rosse show that with certain assumptions, comparison of the static nature of the type of the equation provides a replacement for the overall level of competition prevailing in the market. By using secondary data issued by Bank Indonesia (BI), this study used pooled the data (data panel) is to combine data from year 2010 to 2014 on 9 banking institutions. The results showed that the level of competition in the Indonesian banking industry generally contain the elements of nature and the nature of the market monopoly of perfect competition or are in a situation of monopolistic competition (monopolistic competitions)
Abstract : Demand vegetables in the city of Pekanbaru increased, but relatively similar vegetable production and a tendency to decline. This study aimed to analyze the dominant factors that determine the production of vegetables and return to scale of vegetables in Pekanbaru. Sampling metode was multi-stage random sampling with a sample of 44 vegetable farmers. The production function used is function cobb douglas with the estimation method Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Results of this researh revealed that, first: The dominant factor affecting vegetable production is labor, seed and fertilizer urea at 5 percent level of convidence and determination coefficient of 93.40 percent. Second, return to scale of vegetable farming was Decreasing Return to Scala (DRTS). This means that if the factors of production increased by 1 percent, the production of vegetables will increase by 0.985 percent. Third, the policy implications that must be done by the government in order to meet the demand of vegetables for the city of Pekanbaru made efforts to increase intensification.
Volume 05, Number 02, June 2016
Lukman Hakim and Jauhari Dahalan
Abstract : The relationship of the financial deepening to the interest rate has become an important study for the Southeast Asia countries, especially preparation for entering the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. This study will explore the effect of interest rates on deposits and credit to the financial deepening in ASEAN 5. By using VECM showed that Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore possessed a similar pattern where lending rates negatively affect financial deepening, while the deposit rate positive effect. In contrast to Malaysia and Thailand, deposit rates had a negative impact on financial depth, while the loan interest rate was positive. Meanwhile, using panel data for the ASEAN 5 showed that the effect of interest rates on loans to the depth of the financial sector is negative, whereas the effect of deposit rate was positive
Abstract : The economy cannot be separated from the role of government spending in stimulating the economy. Fiscal policy is government’s tool to intervene in the economy, could change for the better economy or even make the economy into a recession. On the other hand, economic activity over the impact of greenhouse gas contribution, so the impact on global climate change. Therefore, a certain sectorspecific fiscal policies have considerable impact in influencing greenhouse gases. This study aims to provide an analysis of fiscal policy scenarios that can affect greenhouse gases, so that could explain what sector-specific fiscal policies that can increase the risk of climate change. This research uses the model of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) based fiscal policy held by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia named AGEFIS (Applied General Equilibrium Model for Fiscal). The scenario is to decrease fosil fuel subsidy that can produce CO2 emision. The results shows that decreasing fossil fuel subsidies can reduce the CO2 emission, but with high consequences. The consequences are the economic growth seen to fall, household wealth declined and the real consumption levels decrease.
Abstract : The implementation of regional autonomy resulted in each region to be able to manage their finances independently. This is one way the central government to remove the dependency of local governments to the central government. Thus requiring local governments to explore the sources of local revenue in order to finance regional development. In an effort to increase local revenues derived from the PAD is determined by economic factors or economic potential which has the prospect to be developed for each area. The result indicates the role of the revenue (PAD) in the Regional Budget (APBD) of East Java Province indicates that there is still very small, with an average of 15.47% of the total revenue budget. This means that the level of dependence of local governments on the central government is still high. Although the results of regional revenue projections indicate that component has been great in their contribution of the reception area, which amounted to 69.52%. Using the ordinary least squre method, the result of regression correlation are insignificant. This means that the regional gross domestic product does not have an effect on revenue of East Java Province.
Abstract : Macro regional variables are engine in regional economy. Regional economy activity must be conducted by local resources and supported regulation from local government. Each regency and municipality in West Sumatera have leading sector economy. There are sevent regency/municipality led at primary sector, six regency/municipality led at secondary sector and and four regency/municipality led at tertiery sector. Leading sector economy as economic base created goods and service mobility through interregional trade efficienly and income multiplier effect as well as labour multiplier effect continuously. Therefore, needed government policy to accomodate the public interest bese on local potential
Volume 05, Number 01, March 2016
Lisa Dwi Ardianti, dan Al Muizzuddin Fazaalloh
Abstract : This study aims to determine the factors that affect stock returns in the Indonesian state-owned construction period January 2013 to December 2015. The variables used were trading volume, market capitalization, inflation, exchange rate and government policy. The data in this research is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study uses a dynamic panel regression by the method of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results showed that lagged stock returns, trading volume at this time and the exchange rate at the moment significant negative effect on stock returns. While the market capitalization in the current and prior periods and inflation at the moment and the two previous period significant positive effect on stock returns. Besides the government's policy affect to state-owned construction stock returns where policies are made in the era of President Joko Widodo more influence smaller than the policy made during the leadership of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Wawan Hermawan dan Adhitya Wardhana
Abstract : The tourism sector is a sector that can be relied on to earn foreign exchange. Revenue from tourism showed significant progress and continues to grow, so bring a high impact on the Indonesian economy. Number of tourists visiting foreign countries is an important indicator for the growth of tourism sector in Indonesia is related to the increase in foreign exchange. Increase or decrease of tourist arrivals is influenced both by internal factors such as the condition of tourist destinations in Indonesia, politics and security in Indonesia or external factors such as the economic conditions of the various countries of origin of foreign tourists. This study uses panel data with the annual number of tourist arrivals from a number of countries to Indonesia for 19 years as the dependent variable. The independent variable of this research is RGDPP (Real GDP Per Capita), RREER (Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate), TCPI (Indicative Ratio of Consumer Price Index), Population, CPITUNIS (Consumer Price Index Tunisia), TO (Trade Openness). The results of this study indicate that tourist arrivals to Indonesia is heavily influenced by the distance from their home country to destinations in Indonesia. This variable is the biggest variable affecting the arrival of foreign tourists to Indonesia. Income per capita is the second largest variable and has a coefficient close to unity, so that the income elasticity of country of origin is an important variable to be considered.
Abstract : This study aims to identify and analyze the impact of depreciation on the development of Indonesian imports. The method used in this study was a descriptive study with data collection through observation to the data issued by Bank Indonesia (BI) during the fourth quarter of 2012 - the second quarter of 2015. The collected data were then analyzed by quadrant analysis through growth and share, as well as regression analysis. The results showed that the depreciation of the rupiah significantly negative effect on the development of imported goods in Indonesia, both consumer goods, raw and auxiliary materials, and capital goods. In other words, the higher the value, the exchange rate declining demand for imported goods as a whole.
Anhar Fauzan Priyono
Abstract : The objective of this research is to understand the effect of internet utilization, proxied by numbers of internet user to inflation rate. Several other factors are also being considered, which are growth of money supply, exchange rate, and world oil price. There are China, India, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea, consecutively represent top five countries with the biggest internet users in Asia to be observed. Pooled Least Square with Panel Corrected Standard Error has been employed in terms of analysing inflation's behavior of those countries. The main finding of this research is that inflation and numbers of internet user are negatively correlated, while the causal effect is statistically not significant. This is most probable, since utilization of internet is still dominated by web surfing, social media, and online games. On the other hand, money supply, exchange rate, and world oil price has a positive relationship with inflation. Those findings are true for all the countries being observed.