Volume 07, Number 03, December 2018
Muhammad Basorudin, Banna Izzatul Hasanah, Indria Hartati
Abstract : As an agricultural country Indonesia has a lot of natural potential that can be used as export base, for example is cocoa. Unfortunately, most of the cocoa products are still exported in raw form. Even if,, Indonesia also imports cocoa in the form of seeds or in processed form. As a result, there are muchlost value added of cocoa. The lost value added of cocoa is measured by the difference between processed cocoa and raw cocoa exports. The loss of added value can actually become Indonesia's revenue potential. The purpose of this research is to lose the added value of Indonesian cocoa products during the period 2009-2018. In addition, the lost value added of cocoa is also forecasted until the end of 2018. The technique used to forecast is by ARIMA method. It estimates that lost value added of cocoa every month until December 2018. The increase in lost valueadded will give benefit for Indonesianif they can undertake theirs own processing of cocoa products and publishing them to the international market in the form of processed product. Therefore, it is necessary to start to develop alternatives such as the development of production-based agro-industries, especially on the concept of cocoa, and the application of One Village One Product (OVOP) concept in order to increase cocoa productivity and minimize domestic competition .
Friska Darnawaty Sitorus
Abstract : Fluctuations of exchange rate against in the Rupiah can be influenced by international trade which makes the Rupiah exchange rate depreciate or appreciate. The purpose of this study is to recognize the differences in the effect of international trade variables on the Rupiah exchange rate. The model considered for maintaining variables can connect the effects of international trade with the Rupiah exchange rate that occurred before using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. OLS estimation shows that the independent variables, namely exports, imports, and interest rates have a significant influence on the expectations of the Rupiah exchange rate, while variable interest rates cannot significantly influence the Rupiah exchange rate. In conclusion, the export, import and interest rates policies are considered to affect the rupiah exchange rate if Indonesia does not change interest rates simultaneously and other macro policy variables .
Tetty Tiurma Uli Sipahutar, Ahmad Rizki Harahap
Abstract : Silangit Airport is an air transportation infrastructure located in Silangit, North Tapanuli, North Sumatra Province. The government has set Lake Toba as a tourism destination the main attraction for local and foreign tourists. With the continued development of regional tourism, the number of passengers and the number of tourists to SIlangit Airport will continue to increase and affect the regional economic growth which will have an impact on the figure of the North Sumatra Province GRDP. Therefore, the government has begun a big plan to advance Indonesian tourism starting from the construction of facilities and infrastructure in each tourist area. Lake Toba, located in Toba Samosir Regency, North Sumatra, is the largest lake in Indonesia, which is expected to bring more visits from various regions, both domestic and foreign. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the problems of developing Silangit airport to support the acceleration of development in tourism. The results are recommendations for developing the Silangit airport area, including increasing accessibility and transportation connectivity from / to tourist locations throughout the region of Lake Toba tourism object by building Kualanamu-Parapat toll roads, Silangit-Parapat and feeder roads as well as adequate and then traffic smooth, safe, safe.
Estro Dariatno Sihaloho, Rahma, Wandira Larasati Senja, Pipit Pitriyan, Adiatma Y.M Siregar
Abstract : Breastfeeding provide many good impacts on health and economics side. This study tries to estimate the economic impact of not breastfeeding due to diarrhea and PRD cases in North Sumatera. The economic impact elaborated by finds health system medical cost and the patient/non- medical cost. This paper calculates health system medical cost from public hospital, private hospital, and primary health center while the patient cost calculated from 135 patients in 3 kinds of health facilities. This paper combines primary data with Census Data 2010 and IDHS 2012 to get total cost of not breastfeeding in North Sumatera. The costing process shows there are economic loss about US$1,290,582 with average cost about US$ 13.48 in North Sumatera. The total cost consist of health system perspective cost about US$ 799,050 and patient costs about 491,532. This show that most of the cost comes from the health system cost/medical cost about 61.91% and the 38.09% borne from the patient costs and non-medical cost .
Sri Winda Hardiyanti Damanik
Abstract : Identification process u Sectors in an area must be carried out to develop economic development planning. This study discusses changes and changes in the economic sector in North Sumatra Province and the causal relationship between sectors in the economy in North Sumatra Province. Research Objectives To understand and analyze changes and distribution of the North Sumatra sector and analyze the relationships between sectors in the economy in North Sumatra Province. The method used in this study is shift share analysis and estimation with the Granger Causality. By using shift share analysis in aggregate, there is an increase in the level of economic output during 2011 - 2015 and largely due to economic growth at the national level, while affecting the effects of the industrial / sectoral mix (proportionate part) on North Sumatra's economic growth which has a negative impact . estimation results with the Granger Causality note that the sector and tertiary sectors affect the primary sector, the tertiary sector affects the secondary sector and is not related to the causality relationship between the primary sector, the secondary sector and the tertiary sector .
Volume 07, Number 02, July 2018
Lasma Melinda Siahaan
Abstract : This research aims to determine the factors that affect the amount of imported goods intraASEAN. Factors influencing the import of goods in this study are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation and Exchange Rate in each member country of ASEAN. The method used in this research is panel regression through Panel Least Square (PLS) by using program Eviews 10. The data used is panel data, consisting of ten ASEAN member countries and ten years of research from 2006 to 2015. The results of the analysis data show that GDP and inflation have a positive and significant effect on the imported goods intra-ASEAN, while the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the imported goods intraASEAN. Simultaneously, GDP, inflation and exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on imported goods intra-ASEAN.
Desmayani Siregar, Rujiman, H.B. Tarmizi
Abstract : The aim of this research is to examine the effect of intra- regional trade in ASEAN, extra regional ASEAN, foreign direct investment, inflation and population to the economic growth of ASEAN member countries. The method of analysis which is used in the research is regression panel with Eviews software 7. The population which is used in this research is ten ASEAN member countries with study period from year 2010 till year 2014. The result showed that, intra- regional trade in ASEAN, extra regional ASEAN, foreign direct investment, inflation and total population simultaneously has a significant effect on the economic growth of ASEAN member countries. Partially, intra-regional ASEAN trade and the number of population have negative effect on the economic growth of ASEAN member countries. While intra- regional trade, foreign direct investment and inflation partially have positive effect on the economic growth on ASEAN member countries.
Dwita Sakuntala, Juli Meliza
Abstract : At the end of 2008 there was a financial crisis in America that impacted the global economy including Indonesia. This condition causes the movement of the rupiah to weaken following the global economy. The weakening of the rupiah causes, the economic conditions in Indonesia participate weakened. This study aims to determine the effect of money supply, gross domestic income, inflation and interest rates on the rupiah against the US dollar after the 2008 global economic crisis.The basic theory used in this research is the monetary approach theory was developed by Frenkel (1984). The analysis model used is ARCH/GARCH model with Maximum Likelihood estimation method. The empirical result of these research shows that the variable which have positive and significant influence is variable of money supply, and interest rates. Real GDP have negative and significant influence to the exchange rate. While inflation has no effect.
Natasya S.E. Siahaan
Abstract : This study aims to determine the Inadequate Sanitation Influence and Maternal Mortality Rate on Human Development Index (HDI) in North Sumatra. The analytical tool used in this study is the Panel Regression Analysis through the Panel Least Square (PLS) method using the Eviews 10. program. The data used is a panel data consisting of 33 districts and cities in North Sumatra from 2014 to 2016. The result shows that improper sanitation and maternal mortality have a negative and significant effect on the human development index in North Sumatra. While simultaneously, improper sanitation and maternal mortality rates have a significant effect on the human development index in North Sumatra.
Antonius KAP Simbolon
Abstract : This research aims to analyze Cointegration and Causality among ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth, using time series data, that is yearly data during the time period 2007 to 2015. The method used to test cointegration is Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Test dan the method used to test the causality is Granger’s Causality. The result of cointegration test revealed that there are a long run relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure, ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. While the results of the Granger Causality test found there is a two-way relationship (mutual causality) between ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN. But, there is one-way relationship between ASEAN Road Infrastructure and ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth in each member country of ASEAN, which ASEAN Road Infrastructure gives effect to ASEAN Total Trade in Goods and Rate of GDP Growth.
Volume 07, Number 01, March 2018
Milla Naeruz, Syaad Afifuddin , Rujiman
Abstract : Nowadays, cellular phones are highly needed and become the necessities of life. The formulation of the problem was whether the factors of price/tariff, promotion, the number of customers, the number of employees, and tower networks influenced the competition (income) in telecommunication in Indonesia. The theory used in the research was the theory of micro economy and management which were related to income, competition, employees, price, and customers. Secondary data were analyzed quantitatively in the numerical form and time series by using multiple regression models. They were gathered from books, journals, research results, and other sources which were relevant to this research. Dependent variable was competition (income of telecommunication industry), while independent variables were tariff/price, the number of customers, the number of employees, promotion, and network. The result and the conclusion of the research showed that the number of customers and tariff had the most dominant influence on competition, while employees, promotion, and network/bts had insignificant influence on competition even though these three variables were the facility to increase company’s income. Therefore, the management of the company should be careful in identifying competitors and in making policies.
Moraulina Marsella Simarmata, Bastari
Abstract : PPN (Value-Added Tax) and PPnBM (Luxury Goods Sales Tax) are kind of taxes recognized in Indonesia, and are classified into indirect tax which are imposed to the consumption in every level of production and distribution. As the taxes on consumption, PPN and PPnBM are highly dependent on the general economic condition. The indicators of macro economy may have influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM every year, and so is the amount of PKP (Taxable Entrepreneur) as PPN Collector according to the prevailing PPN Law. Therefore, the objective of the research was to find out how the amount of PKP, PDB, export value, import value, inflation, consumption expense, population and SBI interest rates influenced the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia from 1986 until 2015. Ordinary Least Square method was applied for the analysis with multiple linear regression equation. The results showed that the amount of PKP, PDB, export value, import value, inflation, consumption expense, population and SBI interest rates simultaneously had a significant influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia. Partially, the amount of PKP, PDB, Export value, import value, consumption and population had positive influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM, whereas inflation and SBI interest rates had negative influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia.
Syafaruddin Munthe, Ramli
Abstract : Employment is basically a problem which is faced by all regions, but its intensity may vary, based the factors which influence it. Employment exists because of investment and attempts to extend employment because of other factors such as inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, government expenditures, and PDRB (Gross Domestic Revenue). The objective of the research was to analyze the influence of exogenous variables on endogenous variables such as employment, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, investment, government expenditures, and PDRB. The research used quantitative analysis by using coherent secondary data from 1985 until 2015 obtained from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics) of North Sumatera and Bank Indonesia. The data were analyzed by using path analysis model. The result of the research showed that exogenous variables simultaneously had significant influence on endogenous variables in each equation model. The variables of investment, government expenditures, gross domestic revenue, inflation, and interest rate did not have any significant influence on the variable of employment. Meanwhile, the variable of exchange rate had positive and significant influence on the variable of employment.
Budi Irwansyah, Endang Sulistya Rini, Beby KF Sembiring
Abstract : PT. Bank Aceh, Medan Branch, undergoes the decrease in its clients’ loyalty which indicated by the increase in non-active clients in the period of 2011-2015. The objective of this research was to find out and analyze the influence of Service Quality on Clients’ satisfaction and its effect on their loyalty at PT. Bank Aceh, Medan Branch. The data were gathered by conducting descriptive quantitative survey and distributing questionnaires to 94 respondents and analyzed by using path analysis. The result of the research showed that, simultaneously, tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty. Partially, tangibles had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty, reliability had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty, responsiveness had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty, assurance did not have any positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty, and empathy had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty at PT. Bank Aceh, Medan Branch. Clients’ satisfaction had positive and significant influence on clients’ loyalty at PT. Bank Aceh, Medan Branch. Tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy directly and indirectly had positive influence on clients’ loyalty through clients’ satisfaction at PT. Bank Aceh, Medan Branch.
Supandi, Sirojuzilam, Agus Suriadi
Abstract : The objective of the research was to find out the development of cooperatives in Kisaran. The population was all youngsters who lived in Kisaran. The samples were 96 managers of cooperatives that were not youth and dwelled in two subdistricts: Kisaran Barat Subdistrict and Kisaran Timur Subdistrict according to Franck Lynch formula. The data were analyzed by using descriptive percentage analysis in order to find out the role of youth in the development of cooperatives in Kisaran and Shift Share method in order to find out the role of cooperatives in the development of Kisaran. The primary data were gathered by using questionnaires and secondary data were obtained from the related agencies such as the Cooperative, Industry, and Commerce Agency of Kisaran and Central Bureau of Statistics of Kisaran. The result of the descriptive percentage analysis shows as the Agent of Change, they are obliged to improve cooperatives and it is the thing which is done by youth (64.58%). As the Agent of Development, they play an active role in development of cooperatives (68.75%). As the Agent of Modernization, they productively active in marketing cooperatives (68.75%). Therefore, the role of youth influences the development of cooperatives in Kisaran. The result of Shift Share has Proportional shift (P) of 69.76877 which indicates that sub-sector of cooperatives in Asahan Regency has quicker growth than that in the sectors of industry, electricity, gas and drinking water, transportation and communication, and the other services in Kisaran and has Differential Shift (D) of 77.18951 which indicates that sub-sector of cooperatives in Asahan Regency has relatively higher competitiveness than that of the other sectors.